About The 15% Recession Probability In The Next 6-12 Months

IVV is one of three ETFs that track the S&P 500—delivers excellent large-cap exposure at tiny all-in costs. It is despite the common perception that the S&P 500 is providing pure market-cap exposure to the US economy. This committee can be exercised discretion to exclude specific companies. IVV tilts slightly smaller than our benchmark since it is reached farther down the market-cap spectrum. Still, these distinctions are essentially academic and the fund is offering outstanding coverage. This is directed peers such as SPY & VOO and IVV  that charges a tiny fee and tracks its index extremely well, edging SPY by a tiny fraction in holding costs. IVV at https://www.webull.com/quote/nysearca-ivv can not match SPY’s trading volume but offers ample liquidity for investors of all stripes. The fund edges its peers in other subtle ways: it avoids the cash drag SPY wears from its UIT structure, and discloses daily positions, unlike VOO.

15% Recession Probability In The Next 6-12 Months

  • The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is looking at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction – to see if the economy has reached a Turning Point.
  • The main bearish issue is corporate softness. Revenue growth is positive but down while earnings are having declined for three quarters.
  • Durable orders are declining Y/Y that has caused a decrease in manufacturing hours worked. Commercial paper spreads are having once-again increased.
  • building permits are at cycle highs, the 4-week moving average of unemployment claims is low, the stock markets are high, and bond yields for the riskier parts of the market are still low.
  • The jobs and housing markets are in good shape. However, manufacturing data is soft and the yield curve is again moving towards contraction.

Long-Leading Indicators

The following data points are from FactSet’s regular Earnings Insight Newsletter (all data is for the S&P 500):

  • Revenue Growth (3.1%)
  • Companies are earning >50% of revenue outside of the US have seen a 2.1% revenue decline
  • Companies are earning <50% of revenue outside of the US have seen 5.1% revenue growth
  • 8/11 sectors have seen revenue growth, led by healthcare
  • 3/11 sectors have seen revenue declines, led by materials
  • Earnings Growth (-2.2%)
  • Companies that earn >50% of revenue outside of the US have seen a 7.4% earnings decline
  • 6/11 sectors have seen earnings growth, led by utilities and healthcare
  • 5/11 sectors have seen earnings declines, led by energy, materials, and tech

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