My Best Picture Oscar nomination predictions

24 Jan

Roughly in descending order of probability:

The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
The Ides of March

The Ides of March is my “no guts, no glory” pick. It’s no fun being right if you just play it safe. I will probably have more to say Oscars-wise after the nominations are announced. Just putting my predictions up here so I can say “I told you so” later on.


Posted by on 24 January, 2012 in Oscars


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11 responses to “My Best Picture Oscar nomination predictions

  1. Nostra

    24 January, 2012 at 13:19

    Except for Hugo I’ve seen all of these and I would say either Midnight in Paris or The Descendants.

    • Emil

      24 January, 2012 at 14:01

      Is that what you think or what you want, though?

      • Nostra

        24 January, 2012 at 14:48

        Of course that’s what I want :)

        • Emil

          24 January, 2012 at 17:52

          Fair enough. If I let my heart do the Oscars talking, I’d have put Drive on there for sure.

  2. Movies - Noir

    24 January, 2012 at 13:50

    I’ve also seen all but Hugo. I pretty much agree with you on the list (however, not sure how many will get nominated, could only be 7). I hope War Horse doesn’t make the cut as I felt Spielberg didn’t do enough to get his movie nominated.

    I think The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is the one that has the best chance to make the cut of the ones not mentioned. But that would mean either War Horse or The Ides of March won’t make the cut (or both). The other six I feel are “locks” to get a nomination.

    • Emil

      24 January, 2012 at 14:06

      The only ones I feel fully confident to call 100% locks are the top four on my list, with Midnight and Moneyball being close to certain. Everything else is shaky.

      The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo might very well happen. It’s done surprisingly well with the guilds and the rest of the season so far, plus Fincher has become an Academy darling recently with his last two films. Still, they’ve never gone for his thrillers before, and this really doesn’t seem like an AMPAS movie. Hence why I’m predicting War Horse instead, which looks to be everything the Academy loves despite missing out on a bunch of guild nominations.

      • Movies - Noir

        24 January, 2012 at 14:17

        I’ve just posted a last minute list myself.

        I think your top six are pretty much locks, but I’d love a few surprises…

  3. Movies - Noir

    24 January, 2012 at 14:51

    Well, so we got a few minor surprises. The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close got a nomination. Not really a surprise, but they were surely outsiders.

    Demián Bichir getting a nomination for best actor was probably the biggest surprise, even though I knew he was a contender. Haven’t seen the performance yet, but that Michael Fassbender (Shame) didn’t make the cut is a huge miss by the Academy imho.

    Need to sit down and check everything once again, but certainly a couple of surprises.

    • Emil

      24 January, 2012 at 17:50

      Surprises galore indeed! Watching the announcements was a lot of fun.

      I don’t think anyone was predicting Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close for Best Picture, so I’m fine with missing out on that one. I probably should have seen The Tree of Life nomination coming too, as it certain to be one of those movies with a smaller but really passionate fanbase. The 5% rule wasn’t going to be too big a hurdle for it to overcome. I’m mainly pleased that I went with War Horse and not The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

      I don’t think things like “deserving” and such really apply when it comes to the Oscars. The voters like what they like, and it doesn’t bother me if their opinions don’t match my own. I’m currently working on a blog post where I’ll go into that more, but I don’t subscribe to the notion that their opinions can be “wrong”. I already know that I think Drive was superbly directed. The fact that the AMPAS didn’t nominate its director Refn doesn’t change that.

  4. Alex

    24 January, 2012 at 16:48

    Damn you were pretty close! Stupid Extremely Loud.

    • Emil

      24 January, 2012 at 17:55

      Yeah, I’m fine with 7/9. It was always going to be tricky to judge this year with the new rules. Lesson learned: never underestimate the Academy’s love for Stephen Daldry. He has made 4 films now: 3 have been nominated for Best Picture, and 3 for Best Director.


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